On August 14 the IMEU Policy Project released findings from a new poll of likely Democratic and Independent voters in the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona that show Vice President Kamala Harris will gain support if President Biden enacts popular policies like a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and an arms embargo on Israel.
In Pennsylvania, 36% of Democrats and Independents say they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic nominee if Biden secured a ceasefire in Gaza, compared to just 3% who say they would be less likely. And 34% say they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic nominee if they pledged to withhold weapons to Israel, compared to just 7% who say they would be less likely.
Conversely, 24% said they would be less likely to vote for Harris if she continued Biden’s policies toward Gaza, compared to just 6% who said they would be more likely.
In Georgia, 44% are more likely to vote for Harris if Biden secures a ceasefire, while just 2% are less likely. 39% are more likely to vote for Harris if she pledges to stop weapons to Israel, and just 5% are less likely. Conversely, 22% said they would be less likely to vote for Harris if she continued Biden’s policies toward Gaza, compared to 11% who said more likely.
Among Arizona Democrats and Independents: 41% are more likely to vote for Harris if Biden secures a ceasefire, while just 2% are less likely. 35% are more likely to vote for Harris if she pledges to stop weapons to Israel, and just 5% are less likely. Conversely, 25% said they would be less likely to vote for Harris if she continued Biden’s policies toward Gaza, compared to 5% who said more likely.
The likelihood of supporting the Democratic nominee in the case of an arms embargo is also much stronger among key voting blocs. Overwhelming shares of young voters say they’d be “more likely” rather than “less likely” to vote for a Democratic nominee if they pledged to withhold additional weapons—by a 54-13 margin in Pennsylvania, a 41-17 margin in Arizona, and a 50-10 margin in Georgia.
Other surveys also strongly indicated Harris was leaving votes on the table by refusing to break with President Biden’s disastrous policies toward Gaza and Israel by calling for an end of weapons to Israel.
Those surveys include:
A CBS News poll in June found 61% of Americans, and 77% of Democrats, support halting weapons transfers to Israel. That’s up from 52% of Americans who supported ending weapons to Israel in CBS’ poll last October. The same poll found that support for cutting off weapons is even higher among critical voters Harris needs: 77% of Democrats, 77% of voters under 30, 75% of Black Americans, 66% of women, 64% of Hispanics, and 63% of self-identified moderates oppose more weapons to Israel.
A poll from the Cato Institute released in September found majorities of swing-state voters support ending weapons to Israel, including 61% of Wisconsin voters, 56% of Michigan voters, and 51% of Pennsylvania voters.
A September poll from the Arab American Institute found that if Harris were to endorse a suspension of U.S. arms shipments and diplomatic support for Israel "until there was a cease-fire and withdrawal of forces from Gaza," her national support would grow from 44% to 49%.
An NBC News poll released in September found 8% of Gen Z voters rank ending the violence in Gaza as their most important issue - above climate change, immigration, racial justice, and gun policy.
The New York Times reported in October: “The Trump campaign’s research found that up-for-grabs voters were about six times as likely as other battleground-state voters to be motivated by their views of Israel’s war in Gaza. The campaign also found that undecided voters were less likely to be white than those in the battlegrounds overall and more likely to be Black. About 25 percent of undecided voters are Black, according to the Trump team.”