New Poll Shows Gaza Was #1 Issue For Biden 2020 Voters Who Did Not Vote For Harris
A poll released Wednesday, January 15, by IMEU Policy Project and YouGov found what few in the Democratic Party have been willing to admit: Vice President Harris lost votes because of the Biden administration’s support for Israel’s genocide of Palestinians in Gaza.
29% of voters nationally who voted for Biden in 2020 and did not for Kamala Harris in 2024 say “ending Israel’s violence in Gaza” was the top issue affecting their vote choice.
When Biden 2020 voters who did not vote for Harris in 2024 were asked “Which one of the following issues was MOST important in deciding your vote?” they selected:
29% - Ending Israel’s violence in Gaza
24% - The economy
12% - Medicare and Social Security
11% - Immigration and border security
10% - Healthcare
9% - Abortion policy
5% - Don’t know
It’s clear this issue played a key role in battleground states as well. Across the six battleground states that flipped from Biden to Trump, 20% of these voters said “ending Israel’s violence in Gaza” was their top issue in deciding not to vote for Harris, the second-most cited reason behind only the economy (33%).
Biden 2020 voters who did not vote for Harris who say their top issue was ending Israel’s violence in Gaza in key battleground states:
Arizona - 38%
Michigan - 32%
Wisconsin - 32%
Pennsylvania - 19%
By a more than three-to-one margin, Biden 2020 voters who did not vote for Harris say they would have been more likely to have voted for Harris if she “pledged to break from President Biden's policy toward Gaza by promising to withhold additional weapons to Israel” rather than less likely.
More likely - 36%
Less likely - 10%
Make no difference - 54%
Even among Biden 2020 voters who did vote for Harris in battleground states, voters by a seven-to-one margin say they would have been more enthusiastic in their support if Harris “pledged to break from President Biden's policy toward Gaza by promising to withhold additional weapons to Israel” rather than less enthusiastic.
More enthusiastic - 35%
Less enthusiastic - 5%
Make no difference - 59%
As the Democratic Party looks for its future leaders in 2028 and beyond, the voters they lost in 2024 overwhelmingly say they would prefer to support officials who have opposed sending more weapons to Israel.
Asked “On November, 19 Democratic Senators voted to withhold weapons from Israel over concern about the Israeli government violating U.S. law and international humanitarian law in Gaza. If the election were held tomorrow, would you prefer to support,” Biden 2020 voters who did not vote for Harris said:
56% - A candidate who voted to withhold weapons to Israel
16% - A candidate who voted against withholding weapons to Israel
28% - Don’t know
These voters also overwhelmingly want to see super PAC dark money out of Democratic primaries. 68% say they support banning super PACs from spending unlimited amounts of money in Democratic primaries. 60% say they would be more likely to support a candidate who rejects super PAC donations.
Post-election speculation that Democrats lost support primarily because they were too progressive or listened too much to activists is not backed up in this polling.
Voters who voted for Biden 2020 and did not vote for Harris are most likely to describe the Democratic Party as “too beholden to wealthy donors and billionaires (46%), “ignoring the demands of voters who usually support Democratic candidates (46%), and “did too much to support Israel in its invasion of Gaza” (44%).
More key findings:
Among Biden 2020 voters who did not vote for Harris, 53% say President Biden’s support for Israel was “too much” vs. 6% who said “Not enough.” 39% say Harris’ support for Israel was “too much” vs. 10% who said not enough.
A majority of both Biden 2020 voters who did not vote for Harris (55%) and who voted for Harris in swing states (56%) say they believe Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.
The Democratic Party needs to come to terms with the real reasons it lost the presidency in November, including that after over a year of unprecedented protests and calls for Biden to stop sending weapons to Israel, party leadership failed to listen to its own voters who overwhelmingly want their government to end its complicity in Israel’s genocide in Gaza.