After the Hamas-Israel Ceasefire: Recommendations for Policymakers
IMEU Policy Project Memo #16
Topline Recommendations
Following the January 15 ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, US policymakers should:
Insist that Israel uphold its commitments and not restart its violence as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated he will do.
Maintain leverage over Israel’s adherence to the terms of the ceasefire and hold Israel accountable for violating US laws and policies by ending weapons shipments.
Support international criminal accountability for all accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Ensure that governance and reconstruction in Gaza is Palestinian-led in accord with the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination.
Establish a link between the ceasefire and a credible political process that will guarantee the fulfillment of the long-denied right of the Palestinian people to self-determination and the right of Palestinian refugees to return home.
Background
Hamas and Israel signed a ceasefire agreement on January 15, which entered into force on January 19. The ceasefire agreement hopefully will permanently end Israel’s 15-month-long campaign of genocidal violence against Palestinians in Gaza, result in the exchange of Israeli hostages and prisoners of war for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel, and allow for a surge in humanitarian aid to Palestinians who have been subjected to starvation as a weapon of war by Israel and for the reconstruction of Gaza.
This mutually agreed upon, negotiated ceasefire deal was the only feasible way to bring this nightmare to a conclusion, just as a negotiated ceasefire deal was the only available route to halt all previous rounds of violence between Hamas and Israel.
Instead of recognizing immediately that a negotiated ceasefire was the only option, the Biden administration repeatedly delayed the inevitable by shamefully vetoing no less than four UN Security Council ceasefire resolutions while all the time keeping open the spigot of US weapons deliveries to Israel which enabled its genocidal violence and made the US complicit in and a partner to Israel’s crimes against humanity.
Once the Biden administration finally adopted a ceasefire as its policy goal in May 2024, it engaged thereafter in feckless negotiating strategies, failing to leverage any pressure on Israel to accede to the three-stage framework for the deal that President Biden outlined. This abject failure to bring negotiations to a successful conclusion enabled Israel to further prolong its genocidal violence for more than another seven months.
According to media reports, it was only the pressure exerted by the incoming Trump administration and in particular by President Trump’s Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff which compelled Netanyahu to finalize the deal. If true, this suggests one or more of the following explanations for the Biden administration’s failure to achieve a ceasefire earlier: ineptitude in its negotiating strategy, unwillingness to exert leverage on Israel to conclude the deal, and/or an eagerness to enable Israel to continue its genocidal violence against Palestinians.
The Biden administration failed for so many months to bring to fruition a ceasefire and end weapons shipments to Israel in contravention of the wishes of the vast majority of the American people. As early as February 2024–months before the Biden administration adopted a ceasefire as a goal–67% of all American voters and 77% of all Democratic voters supported a permanent ceasefire, according to Data for Progress. And, according to a June 2024 CBS News poll taken just days after the Biden administration adopted a ceasefire as a goal, 61% of all Americans and 77% of all Democrats supported ending weapons shipments to Israel.
The ceasefire deal has three stages:
Stage One: During this six-week stage, Hamas will release 33 Israelis and Israel will release upwards of 1,000 Palestinians in weekly batches. Israel will redeploy its forces within Gaza; 600 trucks of humanitarian aid are supposed to enter Gaza per day (while this is an improvement, Israel should not be allowed to negotiate quotas for aid that is needed); and Palestinians are to be allowed to return to their homes, although these have been almost completely damaged or destroyed by Israel.
Stage Two: During the first stage, negotiations will continue for the provisions to implement the second stage, which will include the release of all remaining Israelis alive in exchange for additional Palestinians being released by Israel. Israeli forces also would withdraw from within Gaza.
Stage Three: Israel and Hamas will exchange bodies of deceased Israelis and Palestinians.
In light of this ceasefire, IMEU Policy Project makes the following five recommendations to US policymakers:
1. Insist that Israel not restart its violence
This ceasefire should herald a permanent cessation of violence. Even if negotiations for the second stage of the ceasefire are not finalized by the end of the first six-week stage, the terms of the ceasefire mandate that it is to continue as long as negotiations for the second stage are continuing in good faith.
However, Netanyahu already signaled his willingness to renege on this commitment and to restart Israel’s genocidal violence against Palestinians. In addition, he reportedly promised extremist Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich that Israel would continue to inflict violence on Palestinians in Gaza, and implement a “gradual takeover of the entire Gaza Strip,” which would lead to Israel’s “full control” over it, as conditions for him and his party remaining in Israel’s governing coalition.
These threats directly contradict both the spirit and the letter of the ceasefire agreement. Israel has a long history of violating ceasefire agreements. In order for this agreement to take hold, US policymakers must ensure that Israel scrupulously abides by its terms.
2. Uphold US law by ending weapons shipments to Israel
In November 2024 and January 2025, the Biden administration informally notified Congress of impending weapons deals to Israel valued at $8.7 billion. Israel has consistently used most of these types of weapons to commit apparent war crimes against Palestinians in Gaza. As IMEU Policy Project previously recommended, the “Four Corners” should place “holds” on these weapons deals; should Congress be formally notified of these weapons deals, Members of Congress should introduce, cosponsor, and vote for Joint Resolutions of Disapproval (JRDs) to block these weapons deliveries.
Blocking these weapons deals from proceeding is necessary for at least two reasons. First, it constitutes a form of leverage to ensure that Israel adheres to the terms of the ceasefire. Second, it promotes accountability for Israel’s previous use of most of these types of weapons to commit apparent war crimes against Palestinians in violation of US law and policy.
Even before October 2023, Israel’s systematic violence against and apartheid rule over Palestinians constituted flagrant violations of US laws and policies which are supposed to prevent the US from being implicated and complicit in atrocities. Israel’s genocidal violence since October 2023 has exponentially increased Israel’s ineligibility for any US weapons as stipulated by the Foreign Assistance and Arms Export Control Acts.
As a consequence of Israel’s systematic violations of these laws, Members of Congress should introduce and cosponsor legislation to impose a comprehensive arms embargo on Israel to solidify the permanent nature of the ceasefire and pressure Israel to end its denial of self-determination to the Palestinian people.
3. Support international criminal accountability
In May 2024, International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Karim Khan sought arrest warrants for Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh, along with Netanyahu and former Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant. Israel killed all three Hamas leaders. In November 2024, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant.
Everyone should be held accountable for war crimes and crimes against humanity, and the allegations made against Israeli leaders cannot be made an exception to this rule without gravely undermining the credibility of the entire post-World War II global system of human rights. And, it is important to note, the ICC exercises jurisdiction over actions which take place in the Occupied Palestinian Territory of the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip, by virtue of the State of Palestine’s accession to the Rome Statute.
Yet instead of supporting the ICC in its quest for accountability for all, Congress already has taken steps to sanction any foreign person who assists the ICC in its efforts. Toward this end, the House passed HR23 in January.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has indicated that he will bring this bill up for a vote in the Senate shortly. IMEU Policy Project calls on Senators to vote no on this bill.
4. Governance and reconstruction of Gaza must be Palestinian-led
Publicly available information about the ceasefire deal does not include details about how Gaza will be governed and how reconstruction funds for Gaza will be managed. Any degree of Israeli control over decision-making regarding governance and reconstruction must be rejected. Only Palestinians can determine for themselves how Gaza should be governed in the future and Palestinians should be able to determine the prioritization and allocation of funds for the reconstruction of Gaza. Anything less would be an infringement of the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination.
5. Permanent ceasefire must be linked to the fulfillment of Palestinian rights
Securing a permanent ceasefire is just the starting point. Publicly available information about the ceasefire deal does not include any details about a credible political process that would result in the fulfillment of the long-denied rights of the Palestinian people to self-determination and the right of Palestinian refugees to return home. For more than three-quarters of a century, Israel has been inflicting an ongoing Nakba (“catastrophe”) against the Palestinian people, violently driving them off of the land and subjecting them to separate-and-unequal apartheid rule. This must end now. A credible political process that results in ending Israel’s military rule of the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip, undoing all of Israel’s discriminatory laws against Palestinians, and actuating Palestinian refugees’ right to return home are all irreducible components of a just and lasting peace between Palestinians and Israelis.
Photo: Anas-Mohammed, via Shutterstock